Roma’s Champions League Quarterfinal Clinching Scenarios

Even though it might not feel like it after Saturday’s derby disaster, all is not lost in the 2018-19 campaign. However, the Giallorossi must bounce back quickly if they are to make the derby loss a speed bump rather than a concrete wall that stops the momentum they have built since the holiday break. Roma has a quick turnaround this week with the decisive Porto clash looming on Wednesday. EDF’s side enters the match in Portugal with a 2-1 advantage, but the late away goal from Porto at the Olimpico could make winning the tie slightly more complicated. Let’s check out some scoreline scenarios and see what each would mean for Roma.

Advancement Scenarios

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Keep It Simple, Just Win

The most straightforward way for Roma to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals would be to win at the Estádio do Dragão. Already holding a 2-1 lead in the tie, a win means Roma goes through. It wouldn’t matter how many Roma gives up, as long as they score more than Porto. As they say in Italy “Punto e basta”.

A Draw Is Good Enough

With the one goal advantage heading to Portugal, a draw is good enough for the Giallorossi, as well. A draw would mean that Roma would go through winning by one, whether it finishes scoreless or 4-4, Roma wins the tie.

Winning On Away Goals

Roma can lose this match and still go through on away goals. In order for this to happen then Roma would have to lose by one goal and have scored more away goals than Porto’s one. So, 3-2, 4-3, and so on would all be good enough for Roma to go through by virtue of away goals in an even aggregate scenario.

The Extra Time Scenario

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The only way the match at the Dragão goes to extra time would be if Porto are able to reverse the scoreline from the first leg after 90 minutes. If the Portuguese side is up 2-1 then the match goes to thirty minutes of extra time. If it’s still tied then it goes to the crap shoot that is penalties.

The Elimination Scenarios

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Going Out On Away Goals

If Roma were to lose 1-0 on Wednesday they’d be out on away goals. Since Porto only scored once in Roma, this is the only scoreline that would see Roma go out if it loses by only one goal.

Lose By More Than One

If Roma’s defensive struggles continue and the offense can’t keep up than Roma will be in trouble. By virtue of winning by only one goal at home, Roma would be out on any scoreline that sees Porto win by more than a goal.

As you can see, Roma’s first leg victory gives them more clinching scenarios than Porto. However, an early Porto goal can change all of that and really put the onus on Di Francesco’s side. Conversely, an early goal for i Lupi can really make things difficult for Porto. With the way Roma’s defense is playing it’s unlikely it can pitch a shut out, so let’s hope the Giallorossi strike first and negate that Porto away goal.